population trends
in california

Over the past 150 years, California has continuously broadcast itself as a place where 'everyone's dream can come true.'
Ever since the 1849 Gold Rush up until the real estate boom of the late 1980's, the "Golden State" has attracted risk takers who were able to freely seek out their fortune in a place saturated with optimism. As a result, California's industries have developed many products that have revolutionized society. From Minuteman missles to Mickey Mouse watches, California is unparalleled as a location for high technology, entertainment, and financial industries. Its strengths in education, tourism, agriculture, and trade have led the nation for much of the past quarter century. Much of this leadership comes from California's own thirty-two million residents. Their sheer number guaranteeing a propensity of pioneers, drawn by the state's unique and unfettered image. By looking at their characteristics, we get a glimpse of what is in store for the rest of the country and the world.

Population Demographics

Increases in California's population have consistently been one of the state's major sources of growth. In 1970, every 1 in 10 Americans was a Californian. Twenty years later, Californians comprised 12% of the US population, making every 1 in 8 Americans a Californian. After becoming the nation's most populous state in the mid-1960's, California continued growing, doubling its population in thirty years. Though new growth has slowed to 2% a year, California's rates have generally been above the post-World War II US growth rate, averaging 1-2 percentage points higher.

Looking at the phases of population growth, two periods stand out. Starting in 1950, the state witnessed more than 3% increases in population every year until the mid 60's. This was the time of California's growth in defense, aerospace and entertainment industries. During this time, the state averaged 500,000 new persons each year. By the 70's population growth declined to 370,000 people a year, but regained strength in the 80's. The state added over 600,000 people annually due to large numbers of immigrants entering through California. The past five years have seen the number drop to one third of that level, caused by slowdowns in immigration and the net migration of Californians to other states.

California is defined by the census as part of the Pacific division, along with Washington, Oregon, Alaska and Hawaii. Since California's population comprises 75% of the region's population, the Pacific division exhibits the same statistical growth. Compared to other census divisions in the US, the Pacific has one of the highest growth rates over the past 25 years, trailing only its neighboring division to the east, the Mountain states. Together, the Pacific and Mountain divisions comprise the Western region. Since 1970, the West's growth rate has been the highest in the US, more than twice the nation's rate.

In the past 10 years, other states in the West have grown faster than California. In the early 1990's, Washington, Oregon, Alaska and Hawaii outpaced California in adding new residents. California's eastern neighbors, Nevada and Arizona, have more than doubled their populations in the past 25 years. Nevertheless, California's dominant share of census counts helps us to understand how the population is changing, not just in California, but within the entire Pacific and the Western region as a whole.

Components of Change

Changes in California's population figure over the past 25 years can be divided into two parts - that caused by natural factors such as births and deaths, and migration factors, both domestic and international. On average, the state has added over 500,000 people each of those years, one of the highest in the country. By examining the factors, one can see more closely demographic changes occurring in California that affect greatly the nation as a whole.

Net Domestic Migration

Historically, California has drawn many people due to its growing economy and unhurried lifestyle. In the period after World War II, inflows of people moving to California from other states averaged nearly 275,000 people a year. By 1990, however, more people were leaving the state for other locales. This domestic out-migration would turn out to be the first and largest in California history.

Before the 1990 recession, migration into California from other states had increased steadily. In 1989, the largest number of migrants arriving in a single year since the 1960's was recorded - nearly 200,000 people. The states from where most people came were some of the most populous -- New York, Illinois and Florida -- while migration from Arizona and Texas and other Pacific region states was also high. The Pacific region states were the main beneficiaries of people moving away from California at this time. Californians leaving the state headed mainly towards Washington, Nevada, Oregon and Florida.

After 1990, however, out-migration took its toll on the state's population. Though numbers of in-migrants to the state were slightly lower than in the five year period previous to 1990, more Californians were leaving. More than 1 million people left the state between 1990-1994. On the receiving end, neighboring Pacific states showed 1-1/2 to 2 times the numbers of California migrants starting new lives within their borders. The flow of Californians leaving dragged net domestic migration down to a loss of 255,000 people in 1994, the largest ever recorded.

Though a few observers attributed this change to the series of natural disasters and rising reports of crime, traffic and pollution, the figures for unemployment and net migration over the past decade show more correlation. In California, low unemployment during the boom of the late 1980's contributed to high net migration rates as more people were moving into the state. After 1990, both unemployment and the numbers of people leaving the state were rising.

Foreign born population

Immigration is the subject of another group report, but this paper will note some general trends showing how California's population has been affected by foreign-born arrivals. Since the mid-1800's, California has been a magnet attracting many immigrant groups, ranging from Chinese and Japanese laborers in late 19th and 20th century, to Mexican immigrants today. When the 1965 Immigration Act was passed, immigration increased from more diverse places around the globe. By the mid 1980's, international immigration had increased to its highest level in thirty years, netting 400,000 new people to the state each year. By 1993, legal immigration dropped to 260,000 a year, with a quarter of this total comprised of people entering from Mexico. Other significant immigrant groups during that year were Filipinos, 10.6%; Vietnamese, 9.7%; immigrants from the former Soviet Union republics, 6.5%; and China, 5.3%.

According to the Bureau of the Census, estimates of California's population of illegal immigrants range from 1.3 to 1.8 million people, half of the nation's total. Illegal immigration is estimated to be 125,000 people a year, primarily from Mexico. Recent controversy over the costs of illegal immigrants to state treasuries led to the passage of Proposition 187 last year, which barred illegal immigrants from schools and other government services. Though California has benefited from the influx of legal and illegal immigrants in its low-wage industries, changes in the California economy favoring high wage technology jobs may lead to more conflicts in the near future.

Immigration into California alone, however, continues to exceed all other states and even most regions of the nation. Their presence has changed the California economy. With government cuts restructuring many of the state's old line big defense companies, the service and commercial firms recent immigrants have established are fueling much of the state's recent growth. In many cities, businesses in immigrant communities such as Monterey Park, Koreatown in Los Angeles, and Oakland's Chinatown are significant factors in each city's economy. As immigrants find an economic niche in their new culture, they are settling down in established neighborhoods. A look at the most common last names of recent home buyers in Orange County include Lee, Martinez, Rodriguez, Garcia, Nguyen and Wong. It is because of the influx of immigrants, that California was able to increase its population, even as the largest domestic migration out of the state occurred at the same time.

Natural Increases

In the past twenty-five years, the rate of natural increase has risen in California, with births now outnumbering deaths by 2-1/2 to 1. In 1990, this rate was nearly 3 to 1, resulting from baby boom parents reaching childbirth years. Though the number of men outnumbered women by 35,000, 44.5% of all women were in the 18-44 age group. Of this group, the fertility rate was 83 per 1000 women, 25% higher than the nation's average. The natural increase and immigration offset the numbers of people leaving the state, resulting in a net increase of 425,000 new people to California's population in 1994.

Race and Ethnic Composition

Of the four categories of race and Hispanic origin recognized by the census, the Asian and Pacific Islander community in California has increased the most over the past 15 years. It has three times as many people today as it had in 1980. Hispanics have doubled their number, rising from 19.2% of the population in 1980 to 28.2% currently. Projections of the Hispanic and Asian populations show them to reach 33.5 and 17.5% of the population respectively by the year 2010. Along with Black population increases to 7.9% and other minorities, the ethnic minority population of the state will be 60% of the population.

Metro/Non Metro Growth

California is one of the most urbanized states in the union, second only to New Jersey. Over 80% of all Californians live in metropolitan areas with populations greater than 1 million people. Overall, the state has seen growth in both its metro and non-metro areas. During the 1980's, metro growth increased by more than 25%. More significantly, non-metro growth showed a slightly higher rate, 26.4% over the same time period. This rate, however is six times higher than its growth rate during the 1970's. With nearly 97% of California's population already in metropolitan areas, the high rate of growth in non-metro areas indicates increased pressure on undeveloped land. This trend may prove to be critical due to the pride many Californians feel towards their state's natural beauty and environment.

Differences Between Metropolitan Areas

Almost half of California's population lives in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with 30% within Los Angeles County alone. The statistical area is made of over seventy municipalities and covers 34,000 square miles. Its density is quite low for an urban area, averaging only 428 people per square mile. In comparison, the San Francisco Bay Area with 20% of the state population, is 1/5th the size of Los Angeles, averaging 849 people per square mile.

The traditional large cities of California, Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego, have recently spawned adjacent metropolitan areas extending out along highway corridors. The growth of San Bernadino County and the Sacramento-Yolo County MSA were the results of traffic across the state to Nevada destinations. Interstate 5, the state's main north-south highway, has been a critical factor in the development of several areas up and down the state. Orange County has benefited from growth along the highway reaching down from Los Angeles and upward from San Diego. The Central Valley cities have also grown along I-5, with Fresno and Bakersfield MSA's, in particular, showing upward growth since 1970.

Economy

California's economy has benefited from much of the nation's post-World War II growth industries. The defense and aerospace sector was drawn to Los Angeles in the 1950's and 1960's by the sunny and clear skies for aircraft testing and production. In the San Francisco Bay Area during the 1970's and 80's, former Stanford University students started up many of today's large computer technology firms. Real estate across the state boomed during the 1980's due to increased domestic savings and loan and Japanese corporate investment. By 1990, however, the state was entering into a recession deeper than any it had experienced this century. For many Californians, it was the first time in their lifetimes that the number of jobs, income and housing values were not increasing, but significantly falling.

Unemployment

The state's recession lasted three times longer in California than across the US, forcing severe restructuring in most of the state's important industries. National defense cutbacks have hurt many of the high technology contractors whose rise in the 1960's and 1970's fueled much of California's economic strength. The retail and manufacturing sectors have also weakened, following national economic trends. The hardest hit industry in California, though, was real estate and construction. The boom in real estate values of the 1980's was followed by a big bust in prices during the early 1990's. Rents, home prices and commercial real estate values all fell for the first time in more than thirty years. As these three economic sectors struggled, layoffs increased, causing the unemployment rate in California to rise.

In 1993, at the height of its recession, the California unemployment rate was 9.2%, nearly 2-1/2 percentage points above the national average. Job loss was particularly high in construction and defense-contract firms. Since most of these firms were located in Southern California, Los Angeles bore the brunt of the recession, losing 25% of the national total for that year. The high multiplier for aerospace in the region suggest that nearly 300,000 low and high wage jobs were lost due to this one industry alone. California's unemployment rate is now the highest of the 10 largest states in the country.

Labor Force and Per Capita Income

With the decreases in immigration and increased migration out of the state during the 1990's, the labor force grew at a slower rate than the previous two decades. As a result, per capita income growth is smaller in the 1990's than during the expansion years of the 1970's and 1980's. More surprising is the comparison between California and US per capita income figures. In 1970, California was 15% above the national average. By 1994, it was only 1% above the US figure. Accordingly, California's per capita income rank among the other states has dropped from third to fourteenth place during the past 25 years.

Recovery

Events in California today are encouraging. Many observers have noticed improving economic indicators over the past year. Employment growth, home prices, and exports have been rising. Firms have emerged from the recession leaner and more competitive for production in the global economy. Entertainment, computers, and high tech agriculture have grown in the past 5 years, surpassing manufacturing and the defense sector in importance to the California economy. As a result, the job picture is brighter today - 271,000 jobs were created during 1994-1995, compared to the 750,000 that were lost between 1990-1993.

The strengthening economy, however, will provide new challenges for California in the years ahead. Though job growth is rising, migration out of the state has slowed, leading to increased competition in employment. For California's population, future immigration and minority population growth will continue, changing the face of California's work force. California's metropolitan areas will grow more dense, increasing traffic and affordable housing woes. California has turned a corner. Its recession changed greatly its image as the 'place of dreams.' Yet, its people have started to find new answers, transforming themselves, once more, into a place unlike any other in the world.


back to fountain
send a comment
june 1996